Faking a slow-play vs LAgg (sng)

[clark]

What do you guys think of this, from a $16 turbo. It's has proven a successful play for me in the past so I thought I would share
Can't remember opp1 stats apart from him having high PFR% and AF. I have a taggy image

Seat 6: hero (3965 in chips)
Seat 8: opp1 (5936 in chips)
Seat 9: opp2 (3599 in chips)
hero: posts small blind 100
opp1: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to arkwon [ ]
opp2: folds
hero: raises 600 to 800
opp1: calls 600
*** FLOP *** [ ]
hero: checks
opp1: bets 1000
hero: calls 1000
*** TURN *** [ ] []
hero: checks
opp1: checks
*** RIVER *** [ ] [:]
hero: bets 2165 and is all-in

The reason for my play is a result of opp1s bet on the flop of 1000
This bet either means
1. Bad player, bad bluff attempt
2. Good player with trips disguising the strength of his hand
3. Beyond level 1 thinking

He would often bet first to act into a scary board like this heads-up, more so than your average laggy player.
Given this information, his high AF and PFR%, I put him on the bluff a lot more often than trips.
Now that I know this, it doesn't matter if he has an overpair to my 77 in the hole - I need to represent trip kings, like AK in the hole for example.
Faking a smooth call on the flop and checking the turn makes it look like I am inducing a bet.
My thinking after my turn bet goes like this: If he checks, I can outplay him. If he bets, I need to re-evaluate

He checks, so I believe that the best way to represent the kings here (or at least something stronger than whatever he holds), is to commit the rest of my chips, a bet of about 1/2 the pot

Maybe I could have taken a different approach whereby I bet less on the river to induce a call, assuming my 77s are good.

What is the best approach on the river, in your opinion?

[thats_wrong]

If your opponent has a high PFR% and high AF then he is reraising you pre-flop with a wide range of hands, hands that you are behind and ahead to right ? So i think you can rule out pairs, high cards and reasonble aces here. Also, you are 3 handed in a sng, so I think agressive players have an even wider range.

You should have led this flop with a bet, given that he is unlikely to have a king, you might get a call from a five and you dont want to let someone hit a draw or a random T, J, Q


When he bets out, you're a bit scuppered. Your Opp has you outstacked, and if he has any kind of hand your dont have any fold equity with a check raise, so you should just decide if he has a King or a 5. I would go with the 5, because even if he is agressive he might slow play a monster king, and if he had a king there is a good chance he would have repopped it preflops anyway. I think checkraising the flop for all your chips is pretty good once you've checked ( I would have deffinately led at this flop tho)

The idea that you are faking AK with the check call doesnt really hold up if you are a TAG and make regular continuation bets.

You obviously check the turn, but I dont think shoving this river makes much sense. He was prepared to check the turn so he either had something unbreakable or something weak that got caught bluffing the flop, or a 5. He would be hard pressed to call your bet with a 5. He might have a nine, he might call this. He calls with any flush or any King, but folds anything else, and checks behind weaker hands - so you're bet mas massively negitve implied odds (you never fold out a better hand, a worse hand never calls you and you beat his range if he checks behind you)

Those are just my thoughts tho.

[childofcalamity]

you just turned your hand into a bluff, which i dont like.

I'd rather c/c the river. The only benefit to the AI is we might fold out 88, A9, TT-QQ, but again these are 3betting hands pf (A9 maybe not).

[childofcalamity]

if you are going to c/c the flop, just c/move in.

we get a lot of hands that beat us (88-QQ) to fold a fair amount of the time'

It looks like you are committed to the hand on hte flop so don't give him the free cards. 77 is quite vulnerable here

[Shaun]

Flop:
Unless you know him to be a tricky player I don't see him betting 1k on the flop with a king. I think the sevens are good here so I would check/push on the flop.

Turn:
Because he checked the turn rather than fire a second bullet he's probably given up on the hand or picked up a flush draw. If he hit a nine and checks behind here it would be with the intention of checking behind on the river to keep the pot small given your flat call on the flop.

River:
If he was checking behind on the turn with a flush draw he just hit it on the river. If he has a five or nine he'll probably check given that he didn't bet it on the turn. If he has a bare ace (depends on how often he'll 3bet preflop) he'll probably check behind on the end. I'd say the hands he'd shove on the river would be:

Flush: possible
King: unlikely given flop bet followed by a turn check
TT-AA: very unlikely given preflop call
44/55/99: unlikely
some random SC or air (i.e. a bluff)

Going on equity alone his bluffing percentage on the end would have to be:

x(8k)+(1-x)(-2.2k)=0

i.e. he would have to be bluffing around 22% of the time to make the call break even.

Given this I would probably check/fold the river though I could be convinced of a check/call.